Historical Conspiracies I and The Second Hero of our Story
Our previous lectures have made a tentatively adequate definition of what a "conspiracy theory" is. While we are not at a sufficiently comprehensive definition as of yet, we can at least put down what we know so far: A conspiracy theory is an explanation of an event, series of events, or state of the world that is hidden from the general public, pushed by a clandestine organization (or public individuals working in concert), and is almost universally nefarious in origin. No one has a conspiracy theory in which people are working for the general good.
We have thus far, taken the position, that every conspiracy theory is false, i.e. they do not represent a true explanation of events. However this might lead one to believe that I am denying that any conspiracies have happened. Conspiracies that we know have happened and going through a few of them is helpful in separating conspiracy fact, from conspiracy fiction.
The Pazzi Conspiracy: 26 April 1478 Florence Italy
Florence during the Renaissance was a unique state in that it was independent of the various principalities that had carved up Italy. It was also a Republic, ruled by elected officials. On the surface it was free, but the Medici banking family was actually in charge of things. A powerful bank, it underwrote the Florence economy in such a powerful manner that even during the period of Republican rule they really ran the show as they would openly do so at other times in their history.
However this is not the story of a bank running a state. It's the story of a different banking family that wanted to oust the Medici to replace them. This would be the Pazzi family, a lesser bank but still possessing considerable wealth. The Medici weren't loved, but they weren't hated either; and the Pazzi knew that to get rid of their influence they had to get rid of Medici brothers who ran the bank. They concocted a plan that involved the Cardinal of St. George and even earned the blessing of Pope Sixtus the IV. Their plan had three prongs: assassinate the Medici brothers Lorenzo and Giuliano, seize the Medici palace, and then spread news through the streets that the Florence was free of the Medici tyranny.
The first plan involved murdering the two at a dinner. However this was foiled as the brothers had a security policy that they would never appear in public together...specifically to prevent this kind of thing. The only time the brothers would be together was during church service. They hired a professional assassin, Giovambatista da Montesecco, to carry out the deed. However, he refused to kill the brothers in a church (sure, he'll kill a baby for a florin but not in a church--a man has got to have a code). The Pazzi hire new assassins at the last minute.
At the end of high mass, the assassins strike. They stab Giuliano 19-ish times, killing him. Lorezno is wounded, but having worn an armored vest that day he survives. The popular revolt backfires, and the Pazzi family is executed, their assets seized, their fortunes confiscated, and even their coat of arms is smashed throughout the city. The Medici family consolidate their power and openly rule Florence until 1494.
The principle source for this story comes to us from Florentine Philosopher, historian, ambassador, secretary of state, and playwright Niccolo Machiavelli. His life has some moments of interest. Born in 1469, his father bartered legal services for his education. Niccolo worked in politics and eventually rose to the position of Secretary to the Ten, in the US he would have been Secretary of State, overseeing negotiations with a who's who of Italian Renaissance figures: Pope Alexander VI, Cesare Borgia, King Louis XII of France, King Ferdinand VI of Spain, Countess Caterina Sforza known as the "Tiger of Forli," and was good friends with Leonardo Da Vinci whom he worked with once to literally steal the river Arno from Pisa (see Masters, "Fortune is a River" for a detailed look at this incredible plan).
While most famous for a little book known as "The Prince" his political ideals are laid out in his "Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livy," in which he espouses a republican rule of law. In Book III, Discourse VI, he writes about conspiracies. Detailing how they succeed, fail, and what a state can do to prevent them.
In order to succeed, a conspiracy must have the following. The members must be resolute, they must have both the desire and fortitude to complete the plan. Mere mercenaries won't suffice (Machiavelli spends a lot of pages in his entire corpus lamenting the reliance on mercenaries in Italy). The conspirators must be in a position of strength. Those in weakness will not have the resources or the support to be victorious. They must be discreet about their plan, too many people and the plan risks exposure. You have to think about it like keeping a secret. If you've got to tell someone just tell one person, any more than that, since people cannot be relied upon, and the secret becomes common knowledge. They have to limit the number involved as to keep the plan secret but also, too many moving parts and the plan is bound to fail. Finally there must be a specific plan.
The Pazzi Conspiracy fails on almost every one of his recommendations with the lone recommendation to operate from strength. While they were not as strong as the Medici they still possessed wealth and influence. Yet they had hired a backup team of assassins, at the last minute, Their discretion could have been better, everyone one of the conspirators were arrested or executed, the Pope's blessing was uncovered. Most importantly, they just didn't have a good plan. It relied on a general uprising and support by the population which as an assumption they had made contingent upon success. If they had the support, Lorenzo's survival would have been only a minor inconvenience.
The Gunpowder Plot 5 November 1605 London England
This conspiracy's goal was to destroy the English Parliament and kill King James I. James was the first of the House of Stuart to take the throne, he was also intolerant of the Catholic presence in, what he regarded as Protestant England. He taxed Catholic properties and ordered all priests to leave England. The ultimate plan was to install a Catholic monarch, his daughter Elizabeth as Queen. Despite the popular adoption by Anonymous of the Guy Fawkes mask, and the romanticization of the plot in popular culture, this plot's goal was to overthrow a Protestant King and install a Catholic Queen. That is to say it was nothing about freedom, anarchy, or giving power to the population.
The plan was to detonate 36 barrels of gunpowder underneath Parliament during the opening, which had been twice delayed due to concerns regarding the plague. On November 4th, the plan went forward. Guy Fawkes, was designated to light the fuse of the gunpowder and he's discovered in the room containing it. The guards question him and he explained that he was tending wood for Thomas Percy, he gave his name as "John Johnson" (because "Anonymous Fakename" was already taken). The guards were statisfied and leave him. They return after midnight and discover that he's still there only wearing cloak, hat, and spurs. This time the guards search the room, and discover the hidden barrels. Fawkes is arrested. For two days he maintained that he was acting alone, but torture eventually broke him and he confessed to the plot. Even his target James I commented that he had a "Roman resolution."
The remaining conspirators fled trying to drum up popular support. However they are met with either indifference or open hostility. The English Catholics whom they relied upon for support did not want to be associated with treason. The most guilty were hung, drawn, and quartered.
So what happened?
First discretion. The conspirators were very confident, too much so, they talked to a lot of people including their wives who began to worry for them. They also spoke in front of their servants who reported to the authorities when questioned about the plot. Also someone had sent a Lord Monteagle a warning letter to avoid parliament on the state opening. Monteagle, not understanding the letter, reported it and eventually the king was notified of the plot. He ordered a search of Parliament, suspecting some kind of explosion stratagem, in which Fawkes was discovered.
Second was the unsure plan. Again, a general uprising was counted on, but this was unlikely to have been the case. A group of religious zealots kill the king of England and the assumption was that all of the Protestants, who held a distinct majority, would immediately swear their allegiance to the Vatican and the new Catholic monarch? That is unlikely to the point of being laughable. Instead it's more probable that an even stronger anti-Papist backlash against the conspirators specifically and Catholics generally. However, they kept to other recommendations. All of the people were resolute on completing the plan. They weren't hired mercenaries but eager volunteers.
These two examples of historical conspiracies show the problems in carrying them out. Even when the plan is concocted by powerful individuals success still relies on a number of factors that is difficult to guarantee. Even with motivated individuals victory is still not a foregone conclusion. The next post will deal with two more conspiracies and one plan that was never put into action.
We have thus far, taken the position, that every conspiracy theory is false, i.e. they do not represent a true explanation of events. However this might lead one to believe that I am denying that any conspiracies have happened. Conspiracies that we know have happened and going through a few of them is helpful in separating conspiracy fact, from conspiracy fiction.
The Pazzi Conspiracy: 26 April 1478 Florence Italy
Florence during the Renaissance was a unique state in that it was independent of the various principalities that had carved up Italy. It was also a Republic, ruled by elected officials. On the surface it was free, but the Medici banking family was actually in charge of things. A powerful bank, it underwrote the Florence economy in such a powerful manner that even during the period of Republican rule they really ran the show as they would openly do so at other times in their history.
However this is not the story of a bank running a state. It's the story of a different banking family that wanted to oust the Medici to replace them. This would be the Pazzi family, a lesser bank but still possessing considerable wealth. The Medici weren't loved, but they weren't hated either; and the Pazzi knew that to get rid of their influence they had to get rid of Medici brothers who ran the bank. They concocted a plan that involved the Cardinal of St. George and even earned the blessing of Pope Sixtus the IV. Their plan had three prongs: assassinate the Medici brothers Lorenzo and Giuliano, seize the Medici palace, and then spread news through the streets that the Florence was free of the Medici tyranny.
The first plan involved murdering the two at a dinner. However this was foiled as the brothers had a security policy that they would never appear in public together...specifically to prevent this kind of thing. The only time the brothers would be together was during church service. They hired a professional assassin, Giovambatista da Montesecco, to carry out the deed. However, he refused to kill the brothers in a church (sure, he'll kill a baby for a florin but not in a church--a man has got to have a code). The Pazzi hire new assassins at the last minute.
At the end of high mass, the assassins strike. They stab Giuliano 19-ish times, killing him. Lorezno is wounded, but having worn an armored vest that day he survives. The popular revolt backfires, and the Pazzi family is executed, their assets seized, their fortunes confiscated, and even their coat of arms is smashed throughout the city. The Medici family consolidate their power and openly rule Florence until 1494.
The principle source for this story comes to us from Florentine Philosopher, historian, ambassador, secretary of state, and playwright Niccolo Machiavelli. His life has some moments of interest. Born in 1469, his father bartered legal services for his education. Niccolo worked in politics and eventually rose to the position of Secretary to the Ten, in the US he would have been Secretary of State, overseeing negotiations with a who's who of Italian Renaissance figures: Pope Alexander VI, Cesare Borgia, King Louis XII of France, King Ferdinand VI of Spain, Countess Caterina Sforza known as the "Tiger of Forli," and was good friends with Leonardo Da Vinci whom he worked with once to literally steal the river Arno from Pisa (see Masters, "Fortune is a River" for a detailed look at this incredible plan).
While most famous for a little book known as "The Prince" his political ideals are laid out in his "Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livy," in which he espouses a republican rule of law. In Book III, Discourse VI, he writes about conspiracies. Detailing how they succeed, fail, and what a state can do to prevent them.
In order to succeed, a conspiracy must have the following. The members must be resolute, they must have both the desire and fortitude to complete the plan. Mere mercenaries won't suffice (Machiavelli spends a lot of pages in his entire corpus lamenting the reliance on mercenaries in Italy). The conspirators must be in a position of strength. Those in weakness will not have the resources or the support to be victorious. They must be discreet about their plan, too many people and the plan risks exposure. You have to think about it like keeping a secret. If you've got to tell someone just tell one person, any more than that, since people cannot be relied upon, and the secret becomes common knowledge. They have to limit the number involved as to keep the plan secret but also, too many moving parts and the plan is bound to fail. Finally there must be a specific plan.
The Pazzi Conspiracy fails on almost every one of his recommendations with the lone recommendation to operate from strength. While they were not as strong as the Medici they still possessed wealth and influence. Yet they had hired a backup team of assassins, at the last minute, Their discretion could have been better, everyone one of the conspirators were arrested or executed, the Pope's blessing was uncovered. Most importantly, they just didn't have a good plan. It relied on a general uprising and support by the population which as an assumption they had made contingent upon success. If they had the support, Lorenzo's survival would have been only a minor inconvenience.
The Gunpowder Plot 5 November 1605 London England
This conspiracy's goal was to destroy the English Parliament and kill King James I. James was the first of the House of Stuart to take the throne, he was also intolerant of the Catholic presence in, what he regarded as Protestant England. He taxed Catholic properties and ordered all priests to leave England. The ultimate plan was to install a Catholic monarch, his daughter Elizabeth as Queen. Despite the popular adoption by Anonymous of the Guy Fawkes mask, and the romanticization of the plot in popular culture, this plot's goal was to overthrow a Protestant King and install a Catholic Queen. That is to say it was nothing about freedom, anarchy, or giving power to the population.
The plan was to detonate 36 barrels of gunpowder underneath Parliament during the opening, which had been twice delayed due to concerns regarding the plague. On November 4th, the plan went forward. Guy Fawkes, was designated to light the fuse of the gunpowder and he's discovered in the room containing it. The guards question him and he explained that he was tending wood for Thomas Percy, he gave his name as "John Johnson" (because "Anonymous Fakename" was already taken). The guards were statisfied and leave him. They return after midnight and discover that he's still there only wearing cloak, hat, and spurs. This time the guards search the room, and discover the hidden barrels. Fawkes is arrested. For two days he maintained that he was acting alone, but torture eventually broke him and he confessed to the plot. Even his target James I commented that he had a "Roman resolution."
The remaining conspirators fled trying to drum up popular support. However they are met with either indifference or open hostility. The English Catholics whom they relied upon for support did not want to be associated with treason. The most guilty were hung, drawn, and quartered.
So what happened?
First discretion. The conspirators were very confident, too much so, they talked to a lot of people including their wives who began to worry for them. They also spoke in front of their servants who reported to the authorities when questioned about the plot. Also someone had sent a Lord Monteagle a warning letter to avoid parliament on the state opening. Monteagle, not understanding the letter, reported it and eventually the king was notified of the plot. He ordered a search of Parliament, suspecting some kind of explosion stratagem, in which Fawkes was discovered.
Second was the unsure plan. Again, a general uprising was counted on, but this was unlikely to have been the case. A group of religious zealots kill the king of England and the assumption was that all of the Protestants, who held a distinct majority, would immediately swear their allegiance to the Vatican and the new Catholic monarch? That is unlikely to the point of being laughable. Instead it's more probable that an even stronger anti-Papist backlash against the conspirators specifically and Catholics generally. However, they kept to other recommendations. All of the people were resolute on completing the plan. They weren't hired mercenaries but eager volunteers.
These two examples of historical conspiracies show the problems in carrying them out. Even when the plan is concocted by powerful individuals success still relies on a number of factors that is difficult to guarantee. Even with motivated individuals victory is still not a foregone conclusion. The next post will deal with two more conspiracies and one plan that was never put into action.
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